November State Revenue Collections Slightly Higher Than Expected

November estimates of state general fund receipts were $9.9 million above earlier projections.
(Published Dec 19, 2012)

Minnesota Management and Budget (MMB) last week released the state revenue collections report for the month of November. As shown in the table below, the preliminary November estimates of state general fund receipts totaled $1,326.8 billion, which was $9.9 million (0.75 percent) more than was projected in the November 2012 Forecast.

Table on Nov. 2012 state receipts

All monthly fiscal year-to-date variances through October 2012 were previously incorporated into the state’s November 2012 Forecast, which was released less than two weeks ago. For fiscal year 2013, which began on July 1, 2012, state receipts have totaled $6.490 billion.

This is the first monthly collection report since MMB released the November 2012 Forecast, a complete state budget forecast projecting state general fund revenues and expenditures. The next forecast will be released around the end of February. Each month between the release of these semi-annual budget forecasts, MMB provides a preliminary monthly state general fund revenue collections report or a more complete quarterly revenue report called an Economic Update.

These monthly collections reports can provide a preliminary assessment of the accuracy of the state budget forecast and the strength of the economy relative to the forecast. However, MMB warns that all results in the report are preliminary and subject to revision and that monthly revenue variances should be interpreted with great caution. Wide swings in revenue variances may be caused by variations in the rate at which receipts are received and processed, and differences in the rate at which tax refunds are issued. In addition, the category labeled “Other Revenues” often includes undefined accounts receivables which will be added to receipts for the appropriate tax when identified.

Minnesota Management and Budget will release a more complete revenue report covering receipts for November and December as part of the January 2013 Economic Update.

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