State Revenue Collections for January Again Exceed Forecast

The upcoming state budget forecast will contain the official revenue and expenditure projections for use during the 2014 legislative session.
(Published Feb 18, 2014)

Minnesota Management and Budget (MMB) released the monthly state revenue collection report on Feb. 10. For the month of January, net state general fund revenues totaled $1.99 billion, which was $83.2 million, or 4.4 percent, more than what was forecast in the November 2013 Forecast.

In January, MMB reported that state general fund collections for November and December had exceeded forecast by $172 million. On Feb. 28, MMB will release the semi-annual state budget forecast that will include a more complete analysis of state revenues and expenditures for the state fiscal years 2015 and 2014.

The details
Individual income tax withholdings in January were down by $18.5 million, or 2.4 percent, from the forecasted level. However, estimated income tax payments exceeded expectations by $71.6 million, leaving net individual income tax receipts $53.1 million, or 4.6 percent, above forecast.

Sales tax receipts were strong. For the month of January, sales tax receipts totaled $508.3 million—which was $16.9 million, or 3.4 percent—above the forecast. Corporate income tax collections were $46.6 million—which is $2.2 million, or 5.2 percent—over forecast. All other revenues exceeded forecast by $10.9 million, or 6.1 percent.

For fiscal year 2014, which began on July 1, 2013, year-to-date receipts are now just over $11 billion, exceeding the November Forecast for that period by $255 million, or 2.4 percent.

The MMB report states that all results are preliminary and subject to revision and cautions that monthly revenue variances should be interpreted with great caution. Wide swings in variances may be caused by variations in the rate at which receipts are received and processed, and differences in the rate at which refunds are issued. Other revenues often include unallocated accounts receivable, which will be added to receipts for the appropriate tax when identified.

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